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A summary table on Venezuela's political situation

By Daniel Duquenal

Sunday 14, March 2004 - I have been postponing for a few days an analysis of the situation. Indeed the speed at which events move forward, in particular the breathtaking judicial cheating taking place in the high court makes any analysis run the risk of becoming outdated by the time it is posted. I decided instead to create a table where I list the advantages and disadvantages of each camp at this time. These of course can and will change too, but they will remain basically true for the weeks to come. Any movement made by the political antagonists is based on what they have in their cards.

I hope that from reading both tables, it will be clear that no side has really the upper hand. Not Chavez in spite of his heavy display of force since February 27. Nor the opposition that can only benefit from the good will of the international observers and that could be helped as well as harmed if for example the OAS decided to apply sanctions.

It is a very complicated and dangerous game. More

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